Nate Silver, predictor of 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, knows Oscar winners

Nate Silver Predicts the Winners of the 2009 Oscars -- New York Magazine

After spending most of 2008 predicting the success of political actors—also called politicians—it’s only natural that Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight.com) would turn his attention to the genuine article: the nominees in the major categories for the 81st Annual Academy Awards (Feb. 22 at 8 p.m. on ABC).

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire.................................99.7%
Gus Van Sant, Milk...................0.1%
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button..................0.1%
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon......0.0%
Stephen Daldry, The Reader..0.0%

When the Academy wants to rebel, it does so with Best Director—this is where “edgy” films are rewarded when it can’t muster the courage to do so for Best Picture (Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, Steven Soderbergh for Traffic). That means Danny Boyle—who has won all the top awards for Slumdog Millionaire—is a shoo-in.

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire..............99.0%
Milk................................................1.0%

Frost/Nixon...................................0.0%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.......................0.0%
The Reader..................................0.0%

Slumdog Millionaire won all three awards associated with Oscar success: the Directors Guild Award, the Golden Globe, and the bafta. It’s also a serious film, which the Academy favors. If there’s an upset (which would be a shocker), it will be Milk; guilt over Prop 8 and the Brokeback snub of ’06 could split the vote, with Boyle getting Director and Milk getting Picture.